![]() ![]() It also anticipated tighter market balances in the second half of the year, “when demand is expected to eclipse supply by almost 2mbpd.” While our own forecast puts current global demand at around 101mbpd, we see higher demand in June, boosted by the driving season in the US and more oil being used to generate power to cool down buildings in the Middle East. In its latest monthly oil market report published this week, the Paris-based agency raised its forecast for global 2023 oil demand by 100,000bpd to 102mbpd. The International Energy Agency sees robust global oil demand. We still see several main reasons to expect the oil market to be under supplied in coming months: However, this means an upside of over 25% from current levels. We now see the Brent price reaching USD 95 a barrel by the end of this year, down from our previous forecast of USD 105/bbl, as we expect Russian oil output to stay at around 9.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) instead of 9mbpd in the second half of this year. Still-elevated Russian exports and the sizable inventory build at the start of this year due to a milder winter in the Northern Hemisphere have also played a role. ![]()
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